The surge in new container ship orders placed at Chinese shipyards is not driven by expectations of global trade growth. Instead, it reflects how carriers are preparing for a long-term fragmented world.

According to Linerlytica, container ship orders reached a record 5.08 million TEU in 2025, with 72% of that volume contracted in China — an all-time high. This is not a cyclical upswing, but a strategic shift.

The experience of the pandemic and recent geopolitical conflicts has exposed the vulnerability of highly optimized global supply chains. The industry is moving away from pure efficiency toward resilience, even at the cost of higher operating expenses. Carriers are no longer betting on a full normalization of routes such as the Suez Canal and are planning for the permanent use of alternative corridors.

The current orderbook already equals 31–32% of the active global fleet, the highest level since 2010. Traditional market analysis views this as a risk of overcapacity and potential freight rate pressure through the end of the decade. However, shipping lines increasingly see newbuilds as buffer capacity for a world with parallel and partially disconnected trade systems.

A structural transformation is underway. A single global network is being replaced by a segmented fleet — serving different trade blocs, sanction-compatible and non-compatible flows, and divergent regulatory and environmental regimes. The dominance of dual-fuel vessels (LNG, methanol) reflects not only decarbonization goals, but also the need to operate across fragmented regulatory frameworks.

The concentration of orders in China is strengthening mutual dependence. South Korea and Japan currently offer no comparable alternatives in terms of scale, pricing, or delivery capacity. Despite ongoing discussions about “decoupling,” Western carriers remain dependent on Chinese shipbuilding. Some lines are accelerating orders to hedge against potential future restrictions on access to Chinese yards, while strong current profitability allows contracts to be secured in advance.

Conclusion: carriers are not building fleets for a return to the old globalization model. They are investing in the infrastructure of a new trade order — defined by redundancy, parallel networks, and strategic flexibility rather than maximum efficiency.