The global container shipping market is facing record overcapacity. Massive deliveries of new vessels from Asian shipyards are outpacing demand growth, which may trigger supply chain disruptions lasting at least until 2029, according to Linerlytica.

This is a global issue:

75% of global trade relies on maritime transport. Disruptions are especially risky for island nations, export-driven economies, and regions with limited land infrastructure.

The impact includes:

• Declining reliability of logistics services

• Increased pressure on food security and manufacturing chains

• Rising competition for port access and key sea routes

• A global search for alternative infrastructure and transport corridors

At-risk regions:

• Sub-Saharan Africa — almost fully dependent on sea trade

• Small island states — vulnerable to price hikes due to lack of influence over shipping lines

Possible scenarios (Container News):

Controlled soft landing – gradual fleet reduction through scrapping and slower sailing

Severe crisis – bankruptcies, government interventions, and large-scale disruption

The response has already begun: countries are investing in new routes (including Arctic lanes), developing strategic reserves, and strengthening regional cooperation.

Bottom line: logistics is no longer just about business — it’s a matter of strategic security. The key question is whether the global system can adapt in time.